(The article was prepared within the framework of the KHAR Center's studies on Azerbaijani authoritarianism)
You can read the first part of the article by clicking this link.
Author: ✍️ Elman Fattah and the KHAR Center's political analytics group.
Civil disobedience in Azerbaijan in the post-political era: models and scenarios
In the second part of the research, the patterns of collective behavior arising at the intersection of the de facto closure of legal avenues and the legitimacy gap are evaluated from a sociological and regional perspective. At the same time, possible forms of civil disobedience in Azerbaijan (symbolic, normative, economic, and network-based activities) are classified and modeled within the framework of regime stability weakening, various socio-psychological scenarios, and the concept of the "dissociation point".
Complete closure of the "legal path"
One of the issues defining the legal and moral boundaries of civil disobedience is related to its legitimacy. John Rawls in his work "A Theory of Justice" describes civil disobedience within the legal system as a "public, nonviolent, conscientious yet political act contrary to law". He declares that such protest is appropriate only within the framework of "serious injustice occurring and normal political means no longer being effective" (RAWLS, 1921). Hannah Arendt in her work "On Revolution" evaluates freedom of participation and movement as the basis of politics. If this does not exist, civil disobedience has long gained public legitimacy in terms of the collective defense of political freedoms (ARENDT, 1963).
De facto closure of the "legal path" in the context of Azerbaijan
The requirements of this normative framework already exist objectively in Azerbaijan. That is, although fundamental political rights are formally noted in the constitution, their actual implementation is impossible. Although the right to freedom of assembly is written in the laws, political actions have been de facto banned in Baku and other cities for many years. Participants in the rare "unauthorized actions" are severely punished. On the other hand, with the licensing and registration systems, the media within the country has been taken under complete control. The intensification of arrests based on expressions on social media shows that freedom of expression is already considered a crime.
All these facts clearly demonstrate that the conditions for legitimate civil disobedience mentioned by Rawls and Arendt fully exist in Azerbaijan. That is, in the conditions of the closure of legal avenues for the main constitutional right of citizenship in Azerbaijan—political participation—civil disobedience already seems to be the last resort for the restoration of freedoms.
The society reaching a critical threshold
Changes in authoritarian systems usually begin with small groups exhibiting bolder behaviors. This phenomenon is called the "threshold effect" in social psychology. The logic is that while the majority remains passive, a minority ready to break the rules created by the system can create a cascade effect.
The idea of a critical threshold is explained within social behavior theories by Granovetter's model of collective behavior (Mark Granovetter, 1978). According to this model, people's decision to join collective action is closely tied to their "individual threshold". In other words, a person decides to participate after seeing the participation of a certain number of other people. Individuals in society have different threshold levels. Some are willing to participate at the first instigations (low threshold), while others join only when the activity takes on a large scale (high threshold). An example of this in the case of Azerbaijan could be many people watching opposition rallies at home, simply sitting on the couch in the late 90s and early 2000s. However, when mass participation expanded, the majority joined the rallies in the fall of 2003. Thus, the beginning of action by a small group has the potential to create a significant turning point.
Empirical examples
Let's show how this model works with a number of regional examples:
In 2018 in Armenia, creative street protests organized by Pashinyan's small group initially could not gain mass support, but shortly after attracted the passive population and ultimately led to the fall of the regime (Miriam Lanskoy, 2019).
Following the fraud in the 2020 Belarus elections, protests first began with activist groups in the capital. The protests expanded over time to encompass marches by people belonging to various social groups, including teachers, workers, and women. This is a clear example of how a system's crisis of legitimacy can be initiated by a minority and spread to the broad masses (Mischa Gabowitsch, 2021).
In 1998 in Serbia, youth and the opposition began organizing protests against the Slobodan Milošević regime. Initially, the protests had a local character. However, when the population transitioned from being passive observers to active participants, the system could not withstand it (Bojana Barlovac, 2010).
Potential conditions in the Azerbaijani context
The exact same dynamics are clearly visible in Azerbaijani authoritarianism: opportunities for political participation have been reduced to zero, public dissatisfaction has deepened, and the sense of social injustice, especially among the youth, has risen. All this indicates that the regime is moving towards a "critical threshold".
Although the severity of repressions is obvious, history shows that small but organized groups can radically change the social behavior model of society. Currently, the small in number but principled and systematically operating groups that do not remain silent and do not surrender even in prison conditions (in short, continuous resistance) prepare the psychological ground for the awakening of the "silent majority" during the critical threshold, and form the necessary environment for the start of mass movements at the first moment when the regime weakens or stumbles.
Legitimacy gap
The stability of authoritarian regimes, along with administrative resources based on violence, relies to a certain extent on legitimate foundations. According to Max Weber, political legitimacy can be based on three main forms: legal legitimacy, performance-based legitimacy (effective governance), and value-based legitimacy (Max Weber, 1978). This also applies to authoritarian regimes. Because public acceptability is indispensable for effectively ensuring mass obedience.
However, starting from 2025, a parallel erosion of these three pillars is observed in Azerbaijan's political architecture. Legal legitimacy was absent from the beginning, performative legitimacy is under the pressure of economic stagnation, and value legitimacy is undergoing a rapid erosion process. This, undoubtedly, will bring the regime face to face with a "legitimacy gap" in the future, and the exhaustion of hopes for a top-down transformation will create both a psychological and a normative basis for civil disobedience (Kharcenter, 2025a).
The main indicator of legal legitimacy is free, fair elections. However, the large-scale electoral frauds that have continued for more than 30 years in Azerbaijan have left no room for doubt about the conclusion that the government "does not represent the will of the people". This is the mass conviction of Azerbaijani society.
In authoritarian regimes, the factor of "economic prosperity and stability" acts as an alternative in the deficit of legal legitimacy. That is, although the government restricts political freedoms, it can compensate for the legitimacy problem on the public plane by ensuring social welfare. However, against the backdrop of increased pressure on the manat, rising import costs, deepening inflation, and consequently the chained rise of social tensions in Azerbaijan, performative legitimacy based on performance has also been rapidly eroding since 2023 (Kharcenter, 2025b). Moreover, according to an article published by the Khar Center in June 2026 based on data from the State Statistics Committee, the growth of the country's economy according to the results of the first 3 months of this year was 0.0. The published report shows that the oil and gas sector, which has played the role of the blood vessel of the Azerbaijani economy over the past 30 years, shrank by 1.0%, while the fairy tale of 30 years of economic diversification, the growth in the non-oil sector, was only 0.4%. Since this weak movement, of course, is not enough to compensate for the major loss, the economy has officially entered a period of stagnation. Additionally, budget revenues dropped by 4.5% compared to the same period last year, and non-oil investments, considered the guarantee of the future, decreased by 14.7% (Kharcenter, 2026). For those who understand the mechanisms of political systems, this "zero growth" is a serious signal showing that the governance model that Aliyev's authoritarianism has relied on for the past twenty years has hit a wall. Because this model is built on the distribution of oil rent to the elites and a silent social contract with society. Today, this mechanism of distribution and social agreement with society is breaking down. Thus, performative legitimacy, the government's instrument of "governance by social consent", is also already losing its function.
The victory achieved in the 2020 Karabakh war brought broad public support to the Aliyev regime. The obtained "victory capital" has been acting as a value-based legitimacy resource for several years. However, as long as the outcomes of the victory make no contribution to improving daily living conditions, this legitimacy resource is also rapidly depleting. Although the restoration of territorial integrity is a symbolic victory, the situation in social justice and governance has worsened even more. This strengthens the feeling of a "chasm between expectations and reality" among the young and urban strata (Elman Fattah, 2025c).
This tripartite legitimacy crisis causes the deepening of the conviction in society that "top-down change is impossible" and increasingly takes on a normative character: citizens characterize the system as incapable of reforming itself. And this turns the search for alternative paths into a necessity. In such conditions, civil disobedience, social mobilization, and extra-institutional initiatives can act as an attempt to create a new legitimacy outside the system.
Thus, the legitimacy gap is a crucial factor for the birth of new political relations and forms of activity. In a situation where the legal, performative, and value bases of the regime weaken simultaneously, society's search for different forms of representation often takes place outside the system, in the form of civil disobedience.
Ethical violation of a non-functional law
The absolute goal of civil disobedience is to achieve the functioning of normal laws or the changing of reactionary laws. For example, restrictions stifling freedom of expression, administrative barriers that de facto ban the right to freedom of assembly, or mechanisms of election fraud are the main targets of civil disobedience. During civil disobedience, it is precisely these laws and prohibitions that are formally violated so that the essence of the right is preserved. Civil disobedience protests not against the legal system, but against the injustice within it.
In this regard, civil disobedience can act as an example of an alternative citizenship model in the current reality in Azerbaijan, where popular sovereignty has turned into sultanism. It can expose the contradiction between the law remaining on paper and society's demand for justice and can form an ethical, peaceful, and social basis for political transformation.
Regional and international examples
Although manifesting in different forms under various political regimes, the main principles of civil disobedience—non-violence and political purposefulness—always remain unchanged.
What happened in Georgia after the 2003 parliamentary elections, when the opposition led by Saakashvili took to the streets citing mass fraud in the elections and then entered the parliament building was "illegal", while entering with roses was an embodiment of the rejection of violence (USIP, 2006).
In the marches organized against Navalny's arrest in Russia, the protesters were considered to have broken the law for taking part in unauthorized rallies, but when the state itself violates the law, it is the citizen's duty to protest this. These protests both emphasized the ethical foundation of the law and were built upon a rejection of violence (Demydova, 2021).
The protests and social media campaigns carried out by the youth and civil society in Kazakhstan starting from 2019 are another example of the creative and non-violent form of civil disobedience.
The protests led by Martin Luther King Jr. in the 50s of the last century were the struggle of African Americans for civil rights and against the segregation legislation of the racist states of the USA. Peaceful, open, and ethically based protests managed to expose the injustice of the legal system without undermining it, and to achieve change (Martin Luther King, 1958).
These examples show that although civil disobedience differs contextually, its main essence does not change: where authorities violate rights and values, citizens have the right and sometimes even the duty to cease passive obedience and peacefully and ethically oppose this. Similar social and political tensions to this context exist in Azerbaijan as well. Therefore, civil disobedience can be considered as a realistic and legitimate strategy for future political transformation possibilities in Azerbaijan.
Possible forms of civil disobedience for Azerbaijan
Note: This section is based on political analysis and does not carry any purpose of an appeal.
Throughout the research, referencing academic sources, we substantiated that civil disobedience is a mass phenomenon occurring against authoritarian regimes. Its main essence is to be away from direct confrontation, to question the legitimacy of the regime peacefully, and to have the character of protesting against the unjust application of laws in order to direct public attention to the problems in the political system. In Azerbaijan, too, against the backdrop of the de facto prohibition of political activity within the framework of laws and the legitimacy crisis the regime will experience in the near future, it is possible that a number of aspects of civil disobedience will emerge as potential opportunities.
As one of the forms of civil disobedience with significant impact, symbolism relies on performative and aesthetic means that influence public consciousness and cultural perception more, avoiding direct confrontation. Symbolic disobedience encompasses behavioral and creative forms where individual and collective dissatisfaction is expressed without being articulated or without an open call.
These activities minimize the risk of political persecution, but at the same time play an important role in shaping public opinion and promoting alternative views. Especially in repressive environments like Azerbaijan, it can act as a possible form of political expression, creating a psychological ground for broader resistance.
Culture-based protests
Cultural means of expression such as theater, poetry, novels, and music can turn into carriers of symbolic resistance in repressive contexts. These forms, which do not pursue a direct political goal but speak in a metaphorical or ambiguous language, are the most effective means of social critique: characters and plots indirectly criticizing authoritarianism in stage works, hidden political ironies criticizing the lower bureaucratic class in literary texts can act as the germ of future civil disobedience.
These types of expression forms have the capability to convey a political message without coming face to face with censorship. In this case, culture is a non-confrontational plane in the work of keeping alternative public discourse alive.
Collective reaction to contradictory legal applications
Authoritarian regimes always apply the law selectively (harshly for some individuals and groups, privileged for others). This weakens public legitimacy. As a result, normative disobedience can emerge as a peaceful, legal, or cultural form of protest against the selectivity of the law. For example, we can cite as an example the protests that caused a wide resonance on social media over the return of Vagif Khachatryan, convicted of genocide, to Armenia, in a reality where political activists are arrested on fabricated hooliganism charges while Aghadadash Aghayev was not thrown into prison despite video evidence of hooliganism, and at the same time hundreds of people, including journalists, are kept in prison on political charges.
Such reactions might not yet take a fully systematic character, but they send a message of deep dissatisfaction to the system and show that the ethical coordinates of society are working in cases where the law serves control, not justice.
That is to say, the behavior of disobedience against the actions of the administrative apparatus that do not comply with the law does not break the law in the classical sense at all, but exposes the boundlessness of administrative dominance and its departure from legal foundations through civil resistance, acts as a public reaction showing that society has preserved its sensitivity to the fair application of the law, and represents conscientious resistance against the political abuse of the law.
Economic disobedience
One of the main, but often overlooked forms of civil disobedience is economic disobedience. This is a form of collective protest aiming to weaken the financial stability or public trust of the government by changing citizens' economic behavior. Economic disobedience is a protest without violence against the network of economic dependence of political power, against the "economy of obedience".
Economic disobedience, by changing the consumption and labor habits of the public, can both create an economic impact on the regime and simultaneously revive people's political consciousness.
Examples:
Deliberate refusal to pay taxes is a symbolic and practical protest mechanism of civil disobedience. The goal is to create pressure against the performative legitimacy of the government.
For example, in Mahatma Gandhi's movement, fiscal disobedience was used as a means of collective resistance against the legitimacy of the colonial government.
Non-payment of taxes or any fines arising from tax disobedience is an invaluable method in questioning the legitimacy of administrative sanctions. By disrupting the working mechanism of the administrative governance chain, this acts as an effective tool of civil disobedience.
For example, although Martin Luther King and the participants of the civil rights movement accepted administrative and criminal responsibility, they denied the moral foundations of the applied sanctions. This clearly demonstrates the main principle of civil disobedience – accepting legal responsibility alongside questioning the legitimacy of the norm.
From this point of view, not paying a fine is an effective act of political discourse directed at the authoritarian system.
Historical examples
The economic aspect of civil disobedience is considered one of the important foundations of the struggle against authoritarian regimes in many countries. For example, in South Korea (between 1970 and 1993), consumer boycotts were organized against large companies affiliated with the government, and students led campaigns aimed at rejecting foreign products at universities (Stanford University, 2007). In Poland, in the 1980s, "Solidarność" (Solidarity) squeezed the system not only through political but also economic paths of disobedience. Workers' protests, their refusal of collective labor activities, and consumer campaigns weakened the economic base of the regime (Dr. Bartkowski, 2009).
Consumer boycotts against state-owned products and the support of free markets within the framework of protests against the Milošević regime in Serbia (in the 1990s), along with creating an economic crisis, had also become a symbol of alternative social regulation. These examples clearly demonstrate what an effective tool the economic aspect of civil disobedience is (Fridman & Hercoginja, 2016).
Theoretical possibilities in the Azerbaijani context
The regime's economic mechanism could be put to the test thanks to symbolic social changes to be made in consumer habits, given that Azerbaijan's economy is closely tied to the state and the majority of large companies are either directly or indirectly under the control of circles close to the government (State.gov, 2025). Occasional boycott initiatives among the youth and the urban population appear from time to time on social media. For example, calls for protests against price increases or service quality (Musavi, 2018).
Economic disobedience is an important form of peaceful and participatory resistance in repressive political regimes. Its power lies not only in economic impact but also in changing social relations and highlighting the individual's political subjectivity. Although authoritarian regimes can often control political behavior, controlling consumption and labor habits is difficult and often unsuccessful. Precisely for this reason, economic disobedience can be considered one of the initial mechanisms of long-term social transformation.
As an example, the boycott calls that resonated on social media against the rise in food prices in 2021–2023 can be shown (Kamilsoy, 2021). Although the event spread quite widely, it did not turn into a real collective behavior. This shows that the potential exists, but coordination is weak. Or, the turning of entirely non-political user dissatisfaction against the local monopoly in certain service sectors (e.g., mobile operators, banks) into a form that could be associated with civil disobedience is a matter of time.
The fact that the Azerbaijani economy is essentially state capitalism in nature brings economic disobedience to the fore as a difficult, but if successful, effective form of protest. If this form of protest emerges purposefully, it could strike a serious blow to the regime's economic levers, and play a significant role in the awakening of public consciousness and the questioning of the regime's legitimacy foundations.
Ethical collective networks
In harsh authoritarian regimes, classical political organization is either dismantled or taken under the regime's control. Under such conditions, the main focal point of civil disobedience becomes informal, decentralized networks operating with trust-based and normative ties. In academic literature, these networks are sometimes also called "ethical micro-communities," "secret societies," or "alternative social infrastructures" (Conversi, 2021a). Even if they are not political organizations in the classical sense, they create a space for both sustainable information circulation and reliable social solidarity.
In harsh authoritarian regimes like Belarus and Russia and totalitarian regimes like Iran, civil disobedience is carried out through small groups based on trust rather than open political calls. These networks have a low-profile and non-hierarchical structure to protect against repression (Conversi, 2021b). A strong ethical bond and social trust exist among the participants. It develops mainly not in physical space, but within the framework of everyday life relations (household, cultural activities, family circles, etc.).
Social base in the Azerbaijani context
In Azerbaijani society, family, kinship, and friendship ties constitute the main elements of social relations. While this structure creates conservative influences on the one hand, on the other hand, it forms favorable conditions for alternative collective action models based on trust. Especially in a situation where social trust is weak and political organization seems difficult, family and close friends still remain one of the safest environments for supporting each other and exchanging information. Small social groups based on ethics principles, for example, collective reading circles, culture enthusiasts, and student friendship networks, can bring together forms of both resistance and passive civil disobedience at the micro level. Regional communities and urban groups with rural roots, thanks to their socio-cultural similarities and long-term trust, can lay the groundwork for building alternative ethical networks. It is possible for these networks to provide an effective platform for spreading resistance on the plane of moral responsibility, without a public political identity. In cases where open political activity does not take place under conditions of authoritarian governance, ethical collective networks play the role of a representative of civil disobedience and a center for alternative social connections. In societies like Azerbaijan where family and friendship relations are important, the probability of this model being effective is high. These networks are neither classic political institutions nor ideological unions. They are called "small ethical resistance areas" and can act as the foundation of civil disobedience for long-term changes.
Potential outcomes
The spread of civil disobedience and the acceptance of its normative foundations by society are among the significant factors endangering the long-term stability of authoritarian regimes. In the context of Azerbaijan, in an environment where institutional politics has weakened, legitimacy has decreased, and political participation is exhausted, civil disobedience will over time emerge as one of the main forms of public resistance.
In the initial stages of civil disobedience, large-scale uprisings or agile political organizations against the regime do not catch the eye. Instead, low-risk activities occurring at the local level, i.e., various small forms of civil disobedience, gradually begin to change the atmosphere of society. In this scenario, small, but regular and widespread actions over time reduce the feeling of fear, eliminate citizens' passivity, and strengthen the "it is possible" mindset in society. Although these waves do not immediately cause large-scale political changes, they can weaken the regime in the long term.
In this situation, the regime's reaction could manifest in two ways:
The first is to belittle the incident. By presenting the protest participants in the form of "foreign influence", they try to isolate the event. The second is to apply harsh but selective punishments; this does not yet indicate full repression.
Consequently, even if the regime maintains its stability for a short period, trust in its robustness gradually decreases. This draws attention to the psychological and institutional confusion that civil disobedience produces more within the system. Local disobedience causes a rise in a sense of danger and panic within the ruling elite. And this brings the system's governing reflexes into a reactive and chaotic state.
In this case, the change has not yet happened, but the regime's "sustainability mechanisms" begin to collapse, and this creates ground for broader transformations in the future.
The deepest form of civil disobedience is the stage where it turns into a large-scale behavior. In social psychology, this state is called the "dissociation point"; here society crosses a certain threshold and separates from the system. At this stage, the majority of citizens accept the regime not as "legitimate", but only as "existing". Obedience to the regime loses its moral foundation from both a personal and collective perspective, and the alienation between the people and the regime turns into a mass conviction. This change yields more serious social consequences than a physical revolution: the system completely loses the invisible socio-cultural pillars (performative legitimacy) that have ensured its stability for many years.
The concept of a "dissociation point" explains the transition moment where social individuals are no longer in harmony with the existing dominant ideology and institutional framework, but a full alternative has not yet emerged either. In this scenario, the laws of the regime formally exist, but their functionality has already been lost. In this case, civil disobedience comes out of marginality in form and begins to be considered justified and "courageous". This expresses the moment when the process begins to form at the cultural and psychological level.
At this stage, the regime's important governance tools — law, administrative apparatus, media, and control mechanisms — still operate, but their influence begins to wane. Such a state is often known as the "silent collapse" stage in authoritarian systems. It is no longer obedience, but disobedience, especially among the youth and urban population, that is accepted as "normal" behavior. In this scenario, the regime already loses the possibility of a systematic response to civil disobedience. Because the contradictions between official discourse and society's moral coordinates have already swollen.
Thus, the regime begins to fall apart in a silent form. What happens in the "collapse of mechanisms" scenario is not yet mass protest activity against the regime, but the start of society's process of drifting away from the regime. Civil disobedience reaches its goal by also undermining faith in the system and promoting new social values. The process is slow, silent, figuratively speaking, in the form of gradually heating the frog's pond, but carries a consistent character. This form of the process advances toward the main goal by weakening the immunity of the authoritarian regime.
Conclusion
When the legal and practical avenues of political participation are exhausted, when the possibilities for legitimate change become limited, and when society's socio-psychological energy is suffocated by repression, civil disobedience emerges as an alternative form of action. In this case, disobedience is a natural exit point – it is society's normative and social reaction to the breakdown of the bond between itself and the regime.
In the current situation, explaining Azerbaijan within the framework of "competitive authoritarianism" is already impossible. Because here we are talking about the abolition of politics as a field of activity entirely. This is a stage that could be called the post-political era. We are already at a stage where the regime's social foundations are exhausted and alternative values are in the process of forming.
Civil disobedience in Azerbaijani society will emerge precisely as a social consequence of the exhaustion of political opportunities. This is not an appeal. It is a potential reaction probability of society in conditions of instinctive reaction and lack of an alternative. Disobedience is an obligatory element of the new social dynamic in the post-political era. Precisely for this reason, in political analyses, attention should be paid not only to what is happening now, but also to what the events are actually paving the way for.
Disobedience manifests as a moral stance born to replace a lost legal space, a social conscience taking the place of silenced politics. A community deprived of freedom of expression will turn to gestures, a society deprived of organization will turn to networking, and a generation conditioned to fear will turn to ethical stubbornness. Because real politics only begins when its absence is felt. Azerbaijan already feels this absence in all its depth.
Note: The article you have read was originally written in the Azerbaijani language. Artificial intelligence tools were used only in the translation.
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