(This article was prepared within the framework of the Khar Center's research on Azerbaijani authoritarianism)
Introduction
In contemporary international relations, states' priorities emerge from a complex combination of values and interests. Relations between Azerbaijan and Italy are not limited solely to economic partnership but have simultaneously transformed into a strategic symbiosis. Two primary factors underpin these relations:
- Energy security and economic interests: Azerbaijan's hydrocarbon resources, particularly natural gas exported to Europe via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), play a significant role in securing Italy's energy independence through diversified sources. Italy currently accounts for one-quarter of Azerbaijan's foreign trade turnover. This has become a sufficient pretext for the complete disregard of human rights in the relations between the two countries.
- Political legitimacy and the "lobby shield": The energy sector not only serves as a source of economic revenue for the ruling family but also creates an opportunity to successfully advance its authoritarian strategy in the international arena. In this context, "Caviar diplomacy" scandals and Italy's obstruction of sanction packages within the European Union that target Azerbaijan's interests (such as the issue concerning the Kulevi port) demonstrate that official Rome has endowed the Aliyev family with the status of its most reliable political representative in the West.
This article analyzes how the energy lines extending from Baku to Rome have transformed into a shield of political immunity, the impact of Rome's "sympathetic authoritarian" model towards Baku on European political centers, and its contribution to the further authoritarianization of Azerbaijan's ruling family. The analysis seeks to answer the question: What unites Italy with the Azerbaijani regime?
Strategic-level partnership with Italy
Following the increase in hydrocarbon production in Azerbaijan and the construction of export pipelines to Europe, the energy factor has become the dominant and guiding element in the regime's foreign policy. This factor has played a central role in the establishment and development of bilateral and multilateral international relations. The "oil boom" and the substantial increase in revenues obtained in this sector have not only created extensive opportunities for the consolidation of authoritarianism domestically but have also assisted in forming the regime's international pillars and securing lobbyists for itself at both individual and institutional levels.
Over the past period, Azerbaijan's foreign political-economic relations have not been confined to the framework of standard and routine interstate relations; rather, they have served to ensure the regime's legitimacy and longevity. This policy, which has proven its effectiveness thus far, is currently being maintained. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's recent visit to Azerbaijan also indicates that this policy has assumed a continuous character. Meloni's presentation of Azerbaijan as Italy's "reliable partner" and her emphasis on the further expansion of cooperation in the long-term perspective demonstrate that democratic standards have long been forgotten for Rome in its relations with Baku (APA, 2026).
The Italian Republic, represented in the "Group of Seven" (G7), is one of the closest partners, perhaps the foremost, of Azerbaijani authoritarianism in Europe and the West. During the period of independence, the dynamics of relations with this country have distinguished themselves in comparison with other states.
In 2014 and 2020, two Declarations on strategic partnership were signed between Azerbaijan and Italy. Based on the latter Declaration, a Strategic Dialogue chaired by the ministers of foreign affairs was established.
The intensity of mutual visits (especially from Azerbaijan to Italy) draws attention. The fact that Ilham Aliyev has made 8 official and working visits to Italy since becoming president in 2003 is one of the indicators of the importance attached to the partnership with Rome in Baku. Prime Minister Meloni's recent visit to Baku reaffirms that the Italian side is also interested in the development of bilateral relations with Azerbaijan. Meloni also attended the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Baku in 2024. And in September 2025, Italian President Sergio Mattarella paid a visit to Azerbaijan.
The Iranian regime's closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the onset of the war with the US and Israel has once again brought the necessity of the reliable and safe transit of energy resources to the center of attention. The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which delivers natural gas from the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea to Italy via Turkey, Greece, and Albania across the Mediterranean Sea, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which exports Azerbaijani oil to Turkey's Ceyhan port and from there to Europe via the Mediterranean Sea, play a crucial role in ensuring Italy's energy security. Since the crisis in the Middle East has increased the importance of Azerbaijan, which exports its oil and gas bypassing Hormuz, for Italy, it would be more accurate to evaluate Meloni's visit within this context.
Although no official documents were signed during the visit, both leaders did not conceal their satisfaction with the negotiations they conducted. While Ilham Aliyev stated, "we had excellent discussions on various aspects," Ms. Meloni noted that they had agreed upon "transforming cooperation through constant political coordination" and stated that they would jointly determine priorities for the future (President.az 2026).
The energy factor
The primary factor conditioning the strategic nature of the relations and warm ties between the two countries is undoubtedly the culmination of cooperation in the economic-trade sphere. For a long time, Italy has been positioned in the first rank in Azerbaijan's foreign trade. In 2025, the volume of mutual trade turnover with this country amounted to 11 billion 860 million US dollars, which is equal to 24 percent of Azerbaijan's total foreign trade turnover (Modern.az 2026). In other words, a quarter of Azerbaijan's foreign trade falls to Italy's share. This is a very high figure. In general, the fact that 85 percent of Italy's trade turnover with the South Caucasus countries is accounted for by Azerbaijan indicates how important a partner the country is for Rome in the region.
When observing the structure of import-export between the two countries, it becomes apparent that energy raw materials play a dominant role and that there is a radical imbalance in favor of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan ranks second in Italy's oil and gas supply. In 2022, when a record figure in trade turnover was registered, Azerbaijan exported goods worth 17 billion 782 million dollars to Italy, while imports from this country amounted to only 340 million 432 thousand dollars.
It is clear that there is a direct correlation between the prices of oil and natural gas in the world market and Azerbaijan's foreign trade indicators. After Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022, the sharp rise in prices in the energy market also led to a significant increase in Azerbaijan's export revenues.
It is known that the war radically altered the European Union's energy strategy, and a strategic decision was adopted to end energy dependence on Russia. For this reason, immediately following the outbreak of the war, the EU accelerated the search for reliable alternative sources. During the visit of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to Baku in July 2022, a Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy was signed between the EU and Azerbaijan (President.az 2026). It is envisioned that by 2027, the export of Azerbaijani gas to European Union countries will be doubled, reaching 20 billion cubic meters per year. Practical steps are already being taken in this direction. In 2025, Azerbaijan exported 12.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the Member States of the European Union, which is 53.8 percent more compared to the pre-war period—2021. 9.5 billion cubic meters of the export volume was transported specifically to Italy via TAP, and this constituted 16 percent of Italy's total gas imports.
Mutual economic interests
Although there is a positive balance in favor of Azerbaijan in the Azerbaijan-Italy trade turnover, this cooperation is not a unilateral collaboration from which only Azerbaijan benefits. The Azerbaijani side also pays close attention to ensuring the economic interests of the Italians. There are up to 130 commercial entities with Italian investment in Azerbaijan, and they operate in industry, agriculture, transport, construction, trade, services, and other sectors.
Italy's ENI group has invested in Azerbaijan's energy sector since 1995. This company holds a 5 percent stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline consortium. "Saipem", "ValvItalia", "Renco", "Bonatti", "Enereco", "Max Streicher", "Honeywell Srl", and other Italian companies have executed supply and service projects worth more than 6 billion euros for the construction of the Southern Gas Corridor.
The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan has invested approximately 3 billion dollars in the Italian economy over the last few years. Large-scale contracts have been signed between SOCAR and Italy's leading engineering, construction, and technology companies. In accordance with these contracts, Italian companies have been involved in the execution of design, engineering, and construction works in the establishment and reconstruction of enterprises in the petrochemical sector in Azerbaijan. Many of the projects have been completed, and cooperation continues on other projects. Italian companies also participate in the restoration and reconstruction works carried out in the liberated territories.
Cooperation has also been established between the two countries in the military-industrial sector, which confirms that the relations truly bear a strategic essence. In 2024, Azerbaijan purchased a "C-27J Spartan" military transport aircraft manufactured by Italy's "Leonardo" company (President.az 2024).
The establishment of the Italy-Azerbaijan University in Baku in 2025, besides being an affirmation of the development of cooperation in the humanitarian sphere, can be considered an indicator of mutual trust between the parties (President.az 2025). This is because the Azerbaijani government typically approaches the implementation of such projects with foreign, especially Western, partners with sensitivity and caution.
Italy's political and lobbying support for the regime
Proximity at this level dictates the participation of Italy, which holds special weight in European and international structures, in defending the interests of the Azerbaijani government within those institutions when the need arises.
The latest information leaked to the media on this subject is related to the controversy caused by the issue of imposing sanctions on Georgia's Kulevi port when the European Union was discussing the 20th sanctions package against Russia earlier this year. It was proposed to include this port in the 20th sanctions package as well, due to its servicing of tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet." However, Italy and Hungary objected to this (Bloomberg 2026). Consequently, Kulevi was removed from the sanctions list.
The Kulevi Terminal and Sea Port, which has been operational since May 16, 2008, is under the management of SOCAR. The terminal is intended for the transportation of hydrocarbon resources and petrochemical products. Since the application of sanctions to the Kulevi terminal and sea port would directly affect Azerbaijan's economic interests, it was immediately blocked by Italy.
Returning somewhat to the past, it is also appropriate to recall the famous "caviar diplomacy" scandal. In 2012, a center named the "European Stability Initiative" released a report stating that the Azerbaijani government buys members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in exchange for caviar, other expensive gifts, as well as bribes, to obstruct reports and resolutions prepared on problems regarding democracy and human rights in the country (BBC 2012). One of the individuals embroiled in the scandal was Italian parliamentarian Luca Volontè. In 2016, the Milan prosecutor's office launched an investigation against Volontè, brought charges against him, and the judicial process began in June 2019 (Civilazerbaijan 2021). In 2017, PACE established an independent investigation body to conduct its own inquiry regarding the corruption facts and, in 2018, permanently banned 14 parliamentarians, including L. Volontè, from entering the Council of Europe premises and attending its events.
In 2021, at the Milan City Court, Luca Volontè was accused of receiving 2 million euros from two Azerbaijani political figures. According to the prosecution, Volontè received this sum in 2013 to hinder the adoption of a report on political prisoners in Azerbaijan at PACE (OCCRP 2021). However, the judicial process culminated in the lifting of the arrest warrant against Luca Volontè, as well as the removal of the restriction applied to his authority to hold legal office, because the statute of limitations (the time frame stipulated in the law for the execution of the sentence) had expired (Ferrarella 2022).
Conclusion
Transcending the essence of traditional Europe-Azerbaijan relations (democratization), Azerbaijan-Italy relations have transformed into a form of support for authoritarianization in exchange for energy supply. This, in turn, indicates that one of the largest countries in Europe has entirely erased issues such as human rights, political freedoms, and democratic governance from its agenda in relation to the Aliyev dynasty, which is the primary barrier to the democratization of the Caucasus. As the importance of Azerbaijan, which serves as a resource country for Italy, increases as an alternative energy supplier, the rigid authoritarianism of the Aliyev family at the helm of the country proportionally augments its international legitimacy.
The Italian example demonstrates that energy partnership not only generates economic profit but simultaneously builds a mechanism of political immunity for authoritarian regimes. TAP, BTC, and other energy projects not only increase Baku's political appeal in Europe but also grant privileges, as seen in the case of the Kulevi port. Yet, the most dangerous aspect of this process is the re-stabilization of authoritarianism across the entire Caucasus, exemplified by Aliyev's Azerbaijan.
The Azerbaijani government utilizes energy revenues not only for economic development and geopolitical influence but also expends them for the strengthening of domestic political control and the neutralization of international criticism. The policy of "silent compromise" that Azerbaijan has secured from an influential European Union member like Italy further intensifies suspicions regarding the selective application of the European Union's normative values regarding democracy and human rights (sanctions against the Georgian regime, support for the Azerbaijani regime).
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